Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,226$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(351 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,156.4}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,156.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $95$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(10 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(103.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $195$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,143$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(1.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,133.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 54.7)}}\) (asimptote \(33,133.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,679$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(282 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,776.6}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,776.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,493$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,249$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(1.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,933.1}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,933.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $232$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(42.7 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{224.7}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 28.5)}}\) (asimptote \(224.7\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,985$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,347$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(616 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,505.6}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,505.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $298$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(28.1 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{300.8}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(300.8\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,049$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,125$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(1.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,073.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(11,073.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $547$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(88.9 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{540.3}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(540.3\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,153$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,802$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(470 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.0}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.0\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(3.04 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.2}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 22.6)}}\) (asimptote \(10.2\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $55,280$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(6.69 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,322.5}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(54,322.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,052$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(988 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,779.6}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(8,779.6\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,598$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $244,995$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(1.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{254,363.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 48.8)}}\) (asimptote \(254,363.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,716$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(3.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,243.7}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,243.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $209,221$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $225,435$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(3.41 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{220,045.4}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 41.2)}}\) (asimptote \(220,045.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31,908$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(4.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,942.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(30,942.4\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $68,351$ on 2020-05-17
